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Any on here working through Time Series forecasting with Jason Brown Lee? I’m having problems with some of his code from his ebook
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Forecasting – Time series methods – Example 1
What are time series forecasting problems?
Time series forecasting problems involve predicting future values of a sequence of observations over time. In other words, it is the task of using past observations to forecast what will happen in the future.
Time series data typically has a temporal component, where observations are collected over time at regular or irregular intervals. Examples of time series data include stock prices, weather patterns, energy consumption, and web traffic.
The goal of time series forecasting is to identify patterns and trends in the data, and use these patterns to make accurate predictions about future values. This can be challenging due to the presence of noise, outliers, and other irregularities in the data.
There are many different approaches to time series forecasting, ranging from simple statistical methods such as autoregression and moving averages, to more advanced techniques such as neural networks and deep learning. The choice of method depends on the complexity of the data and the specific forecasting problem at hand.
What is the weakness of time series forecasting?
Time series forecasting has several weaknesses:

Limited to historical patterns: Time series forecasting relies on historical data to predict future outcomes. This means that if there is a sudden change in the underlying patterns or factors that influence the data, the forecast may not accurately predict the future.

Sensitivity to outliers: Time series forecasting can be sensitive to outliers or unusual data points, which can distort the underlying patterns and lead to inaccurate forecasts.

Difficulty in modeling complex relationships: Time series forecasting assumes that there is a linear or cyclical relationship between variables. However, in realworld scenarios, relationships can be much more complex and difficult to model.

Assumption of stationarity: Time series forecasting assumes that the underlying patterns and relationships in the data remain constant over time. However, this assumption may not hold true for many realworld scenarios, especially where external factors are constantly changing.

Inability to account for external factors: Time series forecasting does not account for external factors that may influence the data, such as economic conditions, political events, or natural disasters. As a result, forecasts may be inaccurate during periods of significant change or uncertainty.
Overall, while time series forecasting can be a useful tool, it is important to understand its limitations and use it in conjunction with other methods to ensure accurate predictions.
What is an example of time series problem?
A time series problem is any problem where the data is collected over time and the goal is to make predictions or draw insights based on patterns in the data over time. Here is an example of a time series problem:
Suppose you work for a retail company that sells products online, and you have access to data on the number of products sold each day over the past year. Your task is to predict the number of products that will be sold each day for the next week. This is a time series problem because the data is collected over time, and your goal is to make predictions based on patterns in the data over time. To solve this problem, you could use time series forecasting techniques such as ARIMA, exponential smoothing, or machine learning models such as LSTM.
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